Does Bitcoin really dump for Chinese New Year?
The 2019–2026 data does not support a reliable “Chinese New Year dump” rule. Bitcoin rose during six of the eight official mainland Spring Festival holidays in this sample. Returns in the seven days before each holiday were mixed: five positive and three negative.
| Year | Official mainland holiday | Seven days before start | Holiday start-to-end |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 4–10 February | +0.85% | +6.26% |
| 2020 | 24–30 January | -5.32% | +12.73% |
| 2021 | 11–17 February | +29.87% | +8.65% |
| 2022 | 31 January–6 February | +4.93% | +10.17% |
| 2023 | 21–27 January | +8.73% | +1.28% |
| 2024 | 10–17 February | +11.02% | +8.15% |
| 2025 | 28 January–4 February | -4.53% | -3.53% |
| 2026 | 15–23 February | -2.13% | -6.07% |
Method: Boxmining calculated percentage changes from Binance BTC/USDT UTC daily closing prices. “Before” compares the close seven calendar days before the holiday with the first holiday day's close. “Holiday” compares the first and final official holiday-day closes. It is one exchange pair, uses a small eight-year sample and does not adjust for fees, intraday ranges or other market factors. It demonstrates historical outcomes, not causation or a trading signal.
What happened after the original 2024 prediction?
The original page was last written immediately before the 2024 holiday and asked whether the expected sell-off had been cancelled. Bitcoin's Binance BTC/USDT daily close increased from $47,751.09 on 10 February to $51,642.64 on 17 February, an 8.15% rise across the official holiday. It had also risen 11.02% in the preceding seven days.
The following two years moved the other way: the same measurement fell 3.53% during the 2025 holiday and 6.07% during the 2026 holiday. That reversal is precisely why a calendar story should not be promoted as a dependable price model.
Why the seasonal explanation is weak
Several mechanisms in the original article are plausible hypotheses, but none establishes a stable causal effect:
- Global trading never closes: Bitcoin trades continuously across regions. Lower staffing or activity at some Asian desks can be offset by automated and non-Asian liquidity.
- Mainland market access changed: China's domestic exchange closures in 2017 and later prohibitions mean old claims about Chinese exchange volume cannot be carried forward unchanged.
- Red-packet spending is not measured crypto selling: the tradition explains a seasonal cash need but does not show that enough holders sell Bitcoin to move a global market.
- Liquidations amplify moves in either direction: leverage can accelerate a fall or a rally; it does not predict which one will occur.
- Other events dominate: monetary policy, exchange-traded-product flows, regulation, hacks, risk appetite and crypto-specific positioning can outweigh a holiday effect.
Testing a seasonal strategy properly would require a pre-registered window, a longer sample, several venues, volume and volatility controls, transaction costs and comparison with random dates. Choosing the best-looking start and end points after seeing the chart creates selection bias.
Corrections to the original article
- The 2024 mainland Spring Festival holiday ran from 10 to 17 February, not 10 to 13 February.
- Bitcoin did not fall across the official holiday in every year discussed. Using consistent daily closes, 2019 through 2024 were all positive from holiday start to end.
- It is too strong to say Chinese New Year has a “strong influence” on Bitcoin price based on these observations.
- Not all factories, OTC services or Asian market makers close, and automated global markets continue operating.
- Binance and Huobi should not be described simply as exchanges catering to mainland Chinese customers under current mainland restrictions.
- Reported intraday highs, lows and closes cannot be mixed into one consistent return series.
- Holiday e-CNY red-packet programs have varied by city and year; they are not one guaranteed nationwide annual feature.
- A historical pattern, even if statistically significant, would not guarantee a future return.
Original 2024 article (historical archive)
The following article is preserved substantially as written to retain its original market commentary. Its 2024 dates, affiliate calls to action and seasonal conclusions are corrected or labeled above.
Chinese New Year (Lunar New Year) has a strong influence on cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin prices decreasing in the months leading up to the New Year. This article examines the trend and the possible reasons why it happens. Chinese New Year is celebrated on a different day each year as it is based on the Lunar Calendar.
This year, Chinese New Year will begin on 10 February and end on 13 February. During this time many Chinese Over-the-Counter (OTC) services will be closed – leading to high crypto volatility.
[The legacy WordPress comparison widget is no longer available. A consistent 2019–2026 comparison appears above.]
*Data based on Bitcoin Prices on CoinGecko. Pre-CNY Highs taken as average candle price up to 7 days before the New Year.
This period is a public holiday in China, as many employees make the annual trip back to their hometowns to celebrate with their families. With a population of 1.386 billion, this represents the largest short-term migration in the world. All factories in China close during this period, with operations frozen for up to 2 weeks as logistics companies and suppliers slowly open up. Chinese New Year is also celebrated in other Asian countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Korea (Korean New Year). China will also be rolling out a feature allowing people to send red packets containing its digital currency eCNY/DCEP. However, it’s important to note that during this time cryptocurrency exchanges will still operate and facilitate trading around the clock.
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Chinese New Year Dump in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023?
Bitcoin prices would almost always drop in the weeks leading up to Chinese New Year.
For example, in 2019, Bitcoin prices dropped steadily from $3,491 right before the Chinese New Year to lows of $3,397 during the holiday.
In 2020, prices fell below the USD$8.3k resistance before Chinese New Year. There was a recovery back to USD$8.5k on the first day of the holidays. However, history cannot help but repeat itself, and within the same day plummeted back below USD$8.3k. Prices then remained stagnant and only made a marked recovery on the last day of the holidays.
In 2021, the tides seemed to have turned with a gradual increase from $32k to $39k in the first week of February, and a huge 2-day rally up to $48k in the few days leading up to the festival. However, during Chinese New Year, prices still began retracing to $46.2k. Fortunately, this did not wipe out the pre-Chinese New Year rally.
In 2022, prices took a sharp nosedive to sub USD$37 levels just before the holidays. Bitcoin prices then rose sharply towards a peak of over USD$39k midway through the Chinese New Year holidays. However, this euphoria was short-lived, and prices took a steep tumble to USD$36.5k on the last day of the Chinese New Year holidays. Essentially undoing the initial price rally a few days prior.
In 2023, prices pumped 1 day before the new year, ringing in a high of US$23,282.40 on the 1st day of Chinese New Year. Prices fluctuated between the US$22,500 and US$23,000 range during the duration of the holidays. However, ultimately closing at US$22,437.68.
Why do Bitcoin prices dump during Chinese New Year?
Decrease in Trading Volume?
Data compiled by CoinDesk Research shows the trading volumes on Binance, Huobi, and OKEx –the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges catering to Chinese customers – were down during the Chinese New Year period. A decrease in trading volume can also be seen during October each year when Golden Week (a 1-week celebration for National Day) in China takes place.
When large numbers of highly leveraged traders all bet on Bitcoin prices moving one way it creates an opportunity for other large investors (whales) to move prices in the other direction. Doing so triggers a cascade of liquidations, sending Bitcoin’s price into free fall and creating huge paper losses for leveraged long traders. The whales are then free to “buy the dip” at the expense of “rekt” traders.
Market Makers on Holiday
It is no secret that market makers and trading bots operate in the Cryptocurrency market – in fact, they are responsible for a portion of the market volume. Market makers located in China and other Asian countries will shut down operations for 3-5 days due to public holidays. Even though market making can be automated by trading bots and algorithms, it still requires humans to watch over the daily operation to make sure the is no malfunction.
During the Chinese New Year, market-making operations will be limited in capacity. This leads to more volatile and less liquid markets.
Cashing out for the New Year
One of the possible reasons for the dip in Bitcoin prices is that people are “Cashing out” for the holidays. This is especially true in China because, during the festival, lucky packets packed with cash are traditionally given out to children and the elderly. These “red packets” are meant to symbolise luck and prosperity and is the only time when giving cash is not taboo in China.
Tradition dictates that married couples should give out red packets to young unmarried children, elderly and service personnel. Company Executives and managers should also give money to their subordinates – with some packets being filled to as much as the employee’s monthly wage.
Due to the huge amount of cash money required, some suspect that this tradition is responsible for the increase in Bitcoin Sell orders before Chinese New Year.
Chinese OTC Volume Drops
Bitcoin is traded in China via Over the Counter (OTC) desks. These OTC desks match orders from buyers and sellers and can offer escrow services. Top desks include Binance OTC and Huobi OTC.
Chinese New Year 2024 Bitcoin price predictions?
This year, Chinese analysts are already looking into the future and are optimistic for Bitcoin prices in the month after the Chinese New Year. They note that Bitcoin prices have generally gone up in the month after Chinese New Year. For example, in 2023, Bitcoin prices went up by 11.15% in the month after the new year, 13.9% increase in 2022, and 30.18%(!!) increase in 2021.
Prices have already been on the rise since 23rd January 2024 where prices were a at a low of US$38,678.18. Prices have been skyrocketing since 7th February 2024, and have crossed the US$46,000 on 9th February 2024! This was already predicted by some analysts on Weibo, saying that prices will not dip, and to welcome the bull market during Chinese New Year.
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Original 2024 frequently asked questions (historical)
Crypto analysts have found that Bitcoin prices would almost always drop in the weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year. Hence in the weeks before and during the “Chinese New Year Dump”, traders expect huge volatility in crypto prices.
Chinese New Year marks the longest extended holiday in China. This period marks the world’s largest short-term migration as people return to their hometowns to visit family. People also cash out to send money back to their families and gift children “red packets”. Therefore, crypto prices dump during Chinese New Year as there is lower trading volume when everyone has “cashed out” their crypto or is busy celebrating.
This year, Chinese New Year will begin on 10 February and end on 13 February.
Frequently asked questions
Does Bitcoin always drop before Chinese New Year?
No. In the seven-day windows measured from 2019 through 2026, Bitcoin rose five times and fell three times. The sample does not support an “almost always” claim.
Does Bitcoin usually fall during the Spring Festival holiday?
Not in this sample. Binance BTC/USDT daily closes rose from the first to final official holiday day in six of eight years, including every year from 2019 through 2024.
What happened to Bitcoin during Chinese New Year 2024?
Bitcoin's BTC/USDT daily close rose from $47,751.09 on 10 February to $51,642.64 on 17 February 2024, an 8.15% increase across the official mainland holiday.
What happened during the 2025 and 2026 holidays?
Using the same start-to-end method, BTC/USDT fell 3.53% during the 2025 mainland holiday and 6.07% during the 2026 holiday. Mixed outcomes are inconsistent with a dependable calendar rule.
How were the Chinese New Year Bitcoin returns calculated?
The table uses Binance BTC/USDT UTC daily closes and the official mainland Spring Festival holiday dates. Pre-holiday return spans seven calendar days; holiday return compares the first and final holiday-day closes.
Do crypto exchanges close for Chinese New Year?
No. Global cryptocurrency markets trade continuously. Individual desks can reduce staffing or activity, but electronic exchanges, bots and participants in other regions keep operating.
Do red-packet gifts cause people to sell Bitcoin?
That is a hypothesis, not an established market fact. Red packets create seasonal spending, but the article found no direct measurement linking those expenses to enough Bitcoin selling to determine global price.
Why can Bitcoin still be volatile around the holiday?
Liquidity, leverage, macroeconomic news, fund flows, regulation and crypto-specific events can all move price. Holiday staffing could be one input, but volatility alone does not identify its cause.
Is this table proof that Bitcoin rises for Chinese New Year?
No. Eight observations from one exchange pair are far too limited to prove a repeatable effect. The table refutes an absolute dump narrative but does not establish a profitable opposite strategy.
Should I trade Bitcoin based on Chinese New Year seasonality?
No calendar pattern guarantees a return. A trade should account for loss limits, position size, liquidity, fees, taxes and the possibility that a historical relationship was random or has changed.
Sources
- Binance Spot API documentation for the UTC daily kline data used in the calculation
- Raw Binance BTC/USDT daily data covering the measured 2019–2021 windows
- Raw Binance BTC/USDT daily data covering the measured 2022–2024 windows
- Raw Binance BTC/USDT daily data covering the measured 2025–2026 windows
- Official mainland public holidays for 2019
- Official mainland public holidays for 2020
- Official mainland public holidays for 2021
- Official mainland public holidays for 2022
- Official mainland public holidays for 2023
- Official mainland public holidays for 2024
- Official 2025 Spring Festival holiday dates
- Official 2026 Spring Festival holiday dates
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