When this article was published in July 2022, crypto and stock markets had experienced a significant six-month drawdown amid high inflation, interest-rate increases, supply-chain problems, an energy shock and geopolitical instability. Those conditions pressured risk assets and reduced investors’ willingness to take risk.
At the time, Bitcoin traded around $20,000, roughly 70% below its then-record near $69,000, while the altcoin market had also fallen sharply. The article asked whether the downturn resembled 2018 and whether it might last as long. This page now treats that question as historical analysis, not a description of today’s market.
Updated 13 August 2026: Two proposed catalysts discussed below are no longer pending. The Ethereum Merge executed on 15 September 2022, completing Ethereum's transition to proof-of-stake. On 10 January 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved exchange rule changes allowing several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products to list and trade. Neither event created a reliable market-timing rule, illustrating why a known catalyst and a forecast return are different things.
The July 2022 article also predates later events in that bear market. Its macro focus was relevant—the Federal Reserve continued rapidly raising rates and reducing securities holdings in response to inflation—but crypto-specific failures also mattered. Any comparison that tries to explain a cycle with one cause is incomplete.
Check out our video comparing the crypto bear market now (2022) and in 2018- and more importantly, how to STILL make money during this downturn:
2018 Bear Market
2017 saw the first true mass influx of retail interest into the crypto space. Bitcoin saw a rapid increase in price, everyone’s friend and grandma were kickstarting their own ICOs to attract funds, and regular companies added the blockchain keyword to their names to increase their share prices. 2017 was the wild west, as there was even less regulation than currently, and the space was rife with opportunists spawning scam projects to extract money from ignorant first-time crypto investors.
But, as with any bubble, it eventually pops. The crypto space was heavily overheated, with investors throwing money at everything that moved, doing minimal to no due diligence, just to get on the crypto hype train. Come 2018, things were starting to cool down and people were beginning to feel the pain. In less than 6 months after the peak ICO craze, over 90% of all the projects were already dead, with many more to go down with them in the rest of the 18-month long bear market.
At the peak of the market, fear about scams and regulation was growing, while China and South Korea were considering restrictions. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) also launched Bitcoin futures in December 2017, allowing regulated futures exposure and short positions. The original article attributed much of the subsequent selling to institutional shorts, but timing alone does not establish that futures caused the crash. Speculative excess, fading ICO demand, enforcement risk, leverage and changing liquidity all belong in the explanation. Bitcoin eventually traded near $3,000 in December 2018 before recovering during 2019.
2022 Bear Market
The COVID-19 shock produced a short, severe U.S. recession from February to April 2020. Governments and central banks responded with fiscal support and unusually accommodative monetary policy. Lower rates, greater liquidity, changing household spending and growing institutional interest all contributed to risk-asset demand; attributing crypto’s rise only to stimulus checks would be too simple. After the March crash, 2020 brought the “DeFi summer,” followed by intense NFT, metaverse and GameFi speculation during 2021.
After reaching its peak in November 2021, the crypto market has kept on steadily grinding down. Those who had called the peak in November aptly understood that the markets were overheated, inflation was starting to get out of hand, and the only way for governments to keep that under control was to begin quantitative tightening through rate hikes. Unfortunately, many were still in denial about the onset of the bear market way into April, which has resulted in a lot of people holding bags that might or might not recover.
Now the path forward seems clear. The US Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy is causing markets a lot of necessary and unavoidable pain. Because the money printing since Covid-19 has been at such an unprecedented level, the Fed is finding it hard to slow down the inflation without causing a lot of damage. The result currently is a looming recession at the same time as inflation is still running rampant and driving up the prices of everything, all the while people’s incomes are stagnating and their expenses increasing.
What the 2022 bull-cycle forecast got right and wrong
Original July 2022 view: There were no clear signs that central banks were about to reverse hawkish policy. The article suggested it might take months for conditions to settle and linked a future recovery to easier monetary conditions. That was a scenario, not a dependable bottom signal. Market cycles do not follow a fixed schedule, and a future bull market is never “certain” on an investor's required timeline.
The two most discussed catalysts were a U.S. spot Bitcoin product and the Ethereum Merge. Both later happened: the Merge moved Ethereum from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake in September 2022, while spot Bitcoin ETPs began trading in the United States after the SEC’s January 2024 approvals. Their market effects unfolded alongside liquidity, regulation, leverage, adoption and investor positioning, so the event dates alone could not identify a safe entry or exit.
Original 2022 bear-market strategies and their risks
The original video framed the downturn as a chance to learn and accumulate. No strategy guarantees profit, a later bull cycle or recovery of a particular token. The list is preserved below with risk corrections added in 2026:
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Dollar cost averaging (DCA) into investments – spreading purchases over time can reduce the risk of committing everything at one price, but the original fixed “20%” example was arbitrary. DCA does not guarantee a good average price or future profit, especially if an asset never recovers. Position size should reflect personal finances, time horizon and capacity for loss.
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Doing lots of research – fundamental research can expose weak economics, security assumptions, governance and liquidity, but it cannot ensure that a project succeeds. Verify primary sources, token unlocks, audits, treasury runway, legal risks and conflicts of interest.
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Diversifying a portfolio – holding several crypto tokens reduces single-project concentration but does not ensure protection because crypto assets can fall together and share exchanges, stablecoins, bridges or counterparties. Meaningful diversification considers asset classes and correlated risks, not only the number of token tickers.
4) Shorting the market – this is a high-risk trade, not a general bear-market solution. Losses on an unhedged short can exceed the original capital, while leveraged derivatives can be liquidated quickly. Fees, funding, slippage, counterparty risk and sudden rallies can make a correct long-term view lose money in practice.
Of course, none of this is financial advice, and we implore our readers to do their own research and never invest more than they are willing to lose. It’s a highly volatile market and not for the faint of heart.
Frequently asked questions
Is this article describing the current crypto market?
No. It is a historical comparison written in July 2022 and updated with hindsight in August 2026. Price references and forecasts are preserved in their original time context and are not current market calls.
Did the Ethereum Merge happen?
Yes. The Merge executed on 15 September 2022 and completed Ethereum's transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. Ethereum.org says this reduced the network's energy consumption by about 99.95%.
Were U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs approved?
On 10 January 2024, the U.S. SEC approved exchange rule changes allowing multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products to list and trade. Technically, the SEC described these U.S. products as spot Bitcoin ETPs, and approval was not an endorsement of Bitcoin.
Does dollar-cost averaging guarantee profit after a bear market?
No. DCA spreads entry points over time but cannot make a failing asset recover or guarantee a profitable average price. Investors can still lose their entire position.
Does holding several crypto tokens create a diversified portfolio?
Not necessarily. Tokens often share market, liquidity, stablecoin, bridge, exchange and regulatory risks and can fall together. Diversification should be evaluated by underlying risk exposure, not ticker count alone.
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